Holy Roman Empire

The developments on the Russo-Prussian battlefield had drawn Franz’s close attention. While he didn’t believe the Prussian-Polish Federation could turn the tide of the war, nobody could ever be certain about the war’s outcome.

A glance through the pages of history revealed that victories, even against overwhelming odds, were crafted by human effort. Examples of classic battles where the few triumphed over the many included:

The Battle of Julu, the Battle of Wei River, the Battle of Guandu, the Battle of Red Cliffs, the Battle of Yiling, the Battle of Fei River, the Battle of Salamis, the Battle of Issus, the Battle of Agincourt, the Battle of Crécy…

There were far too many. In each of these legendary battles, the victors shared a common feature: great generals.

Though the Prussian army was at a disadvantage, it wasn’t entirely without a fighting chance. With a genius like Moltke at the helm, their odds of victory were not negligible.

Franz’s concerns, however, didn’t linger long. He soon reassured himself with a simple thought: “There is only one Moltke, but people like Ivanov can be mass-produced.”

In armies, “fools and geniuses” were rare with the majority of officers being average. As long as the commanding generals above them didn’t cause chaos and allowed them to proceed methodically with their tasks, they would perform adequately.

While Moltke might successfully outmaneuver the Fourth Army, could he realistically outmaneuver every single division and regiment beneath it?

The sprawling front line, stretching over a thousand miles, was primarily under the command of division and regiment-level officers most of the time. While Prussian officers were slightly superior in quality, this advantage was effectively neutralized by the overwhelming manpower of the Russian forces.

A commander-in-chief could only coordinate major battles from a central position with smaller skirmishes still decided by these ordinary officers. Victory depended not just on leadership but also on the quality and quantity of soldiers.

Small victories could build up to a major triumph. During steady, methodical battles, strength and resources became even more crucial.

With Russia launching three major campaigns simultaneously, no matter how brilliant Moltke was, he could only focus on one battlefield at a time. The idea of achieving victory by sitting far behind the lines with only a partial understanding of the front’s situation was pure “myth.”

Without the ability to foresee events and without a clear grasp of the realities in the frontlines, how could anyone precisely deploy troops?

Some might argue that “telegrams” could relay the necessary frontline information. However, in practice, this was unrealistic. Many things could only be truly understood by observing them in person.

An army was composed of people, and wherever there were people, there were schemes. In places with schemes, disputes arose, and the reports sent via telegram, tainted by various interests, often obscured the truth.

Franz asked, “Albrecht, are the Russians planning to abandon the Fourth Army?”

It wasn’t that Franz couldn’t understand the situation, it was just that abandoning an army of over 100,000 soldiers was almost inconceivable.

Put it this way, the Fourth Army alone could rank among the top ten land forces in the world. In all of Europe, only the standing armies of France, Austria, Russia, and Prussia exceeded 200,000 troops.

Albrecht shook his head and replied, “Yes and no. You could say Ivanov has made the most rational choice.

From a strategic perspective, the most critical move for the Russian army right now is to launch their southern offensive, denying the Prussian forces time to prepare.

If they abandon the southern offensive to rescue the Fourth Army, the decisive point of the war would shift to the Warsaw battlefield, which is exactly what Moltke wants to see.”

Pausing for a moment, Albrecht picked up the pointer and tapped it on the map and then continued, “Your Majesty, here is Warsaw, located right at the center of the battlefield.

Before this, the Russians had not planned to fight a decisive battle here and had not stockpiled supplies around Warsaw. If the Russian main force converges there, logistics will become a significant problem.”

Franz nodded. Warsaw, located at the heart of the battlefield, held immense strategic significance. The Prussian-Polish Federation had long fortified the city into a defensive stronghold.

A well-fortified defense was one thing, but the critical issue was that the Russian logistical lines had grown significantly longer. To the north, supplies could flow via the Baltic Sea; to the south, Austria provided support, making resupply relatively easy. However, the Warsaw region relied solely on land transport.

In normal times, this might be manageable, but with winter fast approaching, even with the Russians rushing supplies, it would be impossible to sustain the consumption of an army numbering in the millions.

The Fourth Army was now encircled, and the Vistula River had fallen into Prussian hands, cutting off the only viable waterway.

Even if the Russians managed to retake it, it wouldn’t help much. It’s far easier to destroy than to build. Causing enough damage to render the river impassable for ships would be a simple matter for the Prussians.

Albrecht remarked, “Beyond the strategic implications, the Prussians might also use the Fourth Army as bait, luring nearby Russian forces into a trap to isolate and destroy reinforcements.

Ivanov is a very cautious commander, preferring steady and methodical operations. He’s always avoided high-risk battles like these.

While it may seem that he’s abandoning the Fourth Army, in reality, he’s already initiating a rescue operation—albeit through an indirect approach.

By launching offensives against Warsaw from the east and north, the Russian forces will inevitably draw significant Prussian troops away, leaving Moltke with fewer resources to encircle and destroy the Fourth Army.

With the Prussians maintaining their encirclement, the number of troops they can commit to direct frontline combat isn’t significantly larger than what the Fourth Army can muster.

As long as the Fourth Army’s leadership isn’t incompetent and can stabilize morale, they’re unlikely to be wiped out in the short term.

Just yesterday, the Russian government rented 100 transport airships from us, likely to provide supplies to the Fourth Army.

If all these airships are allocated to the Fourth Army, they should be able to deliver about 100 tons of supplies per day. Combined with the army’s existing supplies, and if luck is on their side, they might just hold out until reinforcements arrive.”

When it comes to the issue of “morale,” one has to admire the Russians. Being surrounded is hardly a concern for them. As long as supplies are sufficient, the Russian Bear retains its fighting capability.

Perhaps this stems from Russia’s unique culture, or perhaps it’s the soldiers’ carefree nature, but the Russians’ resilience in such situations truly earns them the title of “a nation of fighters.”

Even so, Albrecht remained skeptical about the Fourth Army’s chances. The reason was self-evident. Everything relied on theory. The Prussians weren’t going to stand idly by while the Russians transported supplies.

Under enemy interdiction, the actual amount of supplies that could be delivered remained unknown.

Of course, being intercepted wasn’t insurmountable. At this time, anti-aircraft weaponry was relatively limited in power. As long as the airships avoided suicidal low-altitude flights, they wouldn’t be easy to shoot down.

The best countermeasure against airships was other airships. However, airships required time to mobilize. Unless they were directly in the vicinity, by the time they took off, the enemy airships would likely be long gone.

In this context, “luck” would become a decisive factor in the Fourth Army’s fate. However, pinning hopes on luck was inherently unreliable.

“Ivanov has already made his move. What do you think Moltke is planning at this moment? Surely he wouldn’t go to such lengths just for the Fourth Army, right?” Franz asked curiously.

Albrecht waved his hand and replied with some difficulty, “Your Majesty, you’re overestimating Moltke. No matter how capable he is, he is just an ordinary man.

No matter how sophisticated his strategies are, they still rely on the Russians taking the bait. Ivanov is extremely cautious in his command. No matter how many traps Moltke sets, they won’t bite.

Without the chance to employ schemes or deception, the ultimate determinant of victory in this war will be strength. As long as the Russians don’t make any foolish moves, winning the war is almost guaranteed.

For Moltke to turn the tide, his only option is to win the Battle of Warsaw quickly and then launch an immediate offensive to cut off the Russian Southern Front’s retreat, setting up another encirclement.

But with all due respect, that’s almost impossible to achieve militarily. The Russians aren’t fools. They don’t even need to engage in a decisive battle at Warsaw. They just have to stall for time until their southern offensive succeeds.”

Franz asked hesitantly, “Are you sure?”

Albrecht nodded firmly. This was a common issue among those aware of history. They tended to be overly wary of figures who were legendary in history.

In the original timeline, Moltke was elevated to a mythical status, and Franz had heard so much about him that he developed the impression of his “invincibility.”

Even after his experiences as a time traveler and encountering many renowned figures, that lingering sense of unease had yet to entirely dissipate.

Naturally, Albrecht wasn’t aware of any of this. He couldn’t understand Franz’s excessive concern about Moltke.

After some thought, Franz deflected, saying, “I see. Perhaps I’ve read too many newspapers from the Prussian-Polish Federation. Their excessive praise must have influenced me.”

…

As an observer of the Russo-Prussian War, one can see flaws everywhere. Both sides are riddled with issues, and the mistakes they’ve made are innumerable.

However, these are the opinions of outsiders. In reality, there are still many lessons to be learned from this war.

One of the most significant impacts on Europe is the approach to cultivating military talent. The Russo-Prussian War became a watershed moment in this regard.

Before this, European nations primarily focused on grooming military leaders, particularly at higher ranks, with the aim of producing “great generals.”

Yet, the concept of a “great general” is elusive and heavily reliant on luck. The most troublesome part is that until they’ve been tested in war, no one can be sure of their true capabilities.

The Russo-Prussian War taught the world that in the age of firearms, the “halo of a great general” is fading, and true strength is the decisive factor in winning wars.

While a “great general” can indeed increase the odds of victory, their individual influence diminishes significantly when wars involve millions of troops.

For a major power like Austria, it’s far more practical to focus on cultivating thousands of steady and reliable leaders like Ivanov than gambling on the emergence of a “Moltke-style genius.”

When quality falls short, quantity can compensate. Improving the overall military expertise of officers is far more valuable than pinning hopes on one or two “great generals.”

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